Kerala Monsoon of 2023!

Yet another Malayalam new year has unfolded with Chingam day today. But unfortunately what Kerala goes through now is not its pleasant traditional aura of the season. Instead of the rain chilled days, the pleasing mornings and cool nights, Keralites are nowadays waking up to temperatures hovering around 30 degrees with humidity hitting 80%, somewhat like an early summer. Call it El Nino or greenhouse gas emissions, it is a fact that Kerala is at the receiving end of the global climate crisis. Earlier this year scientists had given their “final warning” on the climate crisis which is at the brink of becoming irrevocable. Humans, however, in their frantic pursuit of their insatiable gratifications, are yet to realize that they are accelerating their own impending destruction.

If we observe the past decade, the climatic change in Kerala is swinging like a free pendulum hitting the dreaded bells at both extremes. In 2016 Kerala experienced its worst drought of the last century and within two years, in 2018, it hit the other extreme of the worst flood of nearly a century. In 2016, when Kerala was declared drought-hit by the Centre, as per the IMD, Kerala faced 34% deficit during Southwest Monsoon (Jun-Sep) and 62% deficit during Northeast Monsoon (Oct-Dec). In fact, it was the worst drought hit in the past 115 years.

Now coming to mid-Aug of 2023, Kerala is already facing a deficit of 44% in the ongoing Southwest Monsoon with just one more month to go – 10% worse than the worst drought Kerala faced! Just to show how serious it is, from 1-Aug to 15-Aug Kerala received just 25mm rain while the average expected is 254mm! This is not just alarm ringing; it is the ambulance siren blowing at its full throttle for Kerala. Few reports say it is ‘break of monsoon’, if it is true and if monsoon revives soon all Keralites can feel like each of them have won an Onam bumper! If not, the wait will be for the dicey Northeast Monsoon - the final chance to survive beyond which it will turn catastrophic.

Kerala in its history never had to really face any situation of a prolonged drought. Even the 2016 drought got neutralized with 2017 rains. And for centuries, the twin monsoons have always blessed it showering the pure grace from heaven in abundance making it God’s own country. However, the past decade teaches us it may not always be so. Everything has its tolerance limit and there is no doubt we have already transgressed its breaking point.  

PS: To those who wonder what we should choose given an option between drought and flood, researchers are of the opinion that while both are disasters, drought is more devastating than the flood. Drought has a lasting impact on flora, fauna, groundwater, water availability and several human civilizations were dusted because of long lasting droughts.